Consumption habits in times of uncertainty

For the past few decades, globalization has been the silent engine that has connected economies, cultures, and consumption habits. The free flow of goods, capital, and information seemed unstoppable, but after the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the rise of nationalist leadership, the global landscape has shifted towards fragmentation and uncertainty. The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 and the escalation of trade wars have accelerated this shift: the rules of the game are rewritten every day, and the sense of instability seeps into the everyday decisions of millions of people.

Uncertainty was and will remain the norm

The First World War, the Spanish Flu, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the 9/11 attacks, the financial crisis of 2008, the rise of the internet… are some of the events that have marked a before and after in our recent years of history. All of them were unpredictable and their consequences difficult to manage. 

In the third decade of the 21st century, we are not only talking about economic volatility, but also about a sense of “quicksand” in the political, social, and technological realms. The trade war between the U.S. and China, the imposition of tariffs and their reprisals have slowed international trade and investment, affecting global growth, which is expected to slow down to 2.3% in 2025. Emerging economies, especially in Latin America, suffer from capital flight and the fragility of their currencies, while Europe grapples with a leadership crisis and increasingly profound internal fragmentation.

Uncertainty is not only measured in GDP or interest rates: it also translates into social polarization, information manipulation, and fear of losing wellbeing. Distrust, inequality, and the risk of armed conflict are more present than ever in everyday life.

The return of “us” first

In this climate, economic nationalism has ceased to be a marginal discourse. The consumption of local products and pride in “made at home” have become collective responses to the sense of external threat. In Mexico, for example, the label “Made in Mexico” is not just a tag, but a symbol of sovereignty and resilience in the face of global volatility. In Europe, the preference for local and sustainable goods is growing as an act of resistance against globalization and economic insecurity.

However, this nationalism is different from that of the 1940s: it is now more selective, hybrid, and pragmatic. States protect strategic sectors, relocate supply chains, and combine protectionism with free trade according to their political and military interests. The consumer, for their part, seeks quality, traceability, and the feeling of contributing to national wellbeing.

Change in consumption habits

Uncertainty and protectionism have transformed consumption habits in a palpable way:

• Search for value and caution: Consumers are reducing the size of their purchases, prioritizing private labels and discounts, and are being more strategic in their decisions, especially in sensitive sectors such as durable goods and technology. Conscious saving coexists with the willingness to pay more for products aligned with shared values, such as sustainability or support for the local economy, among others.

• The consumer doesn’t commit to anyone: According to the latest Kantar report, it seems that one in three Spanish consumers is willing to change brands, but it’s not just a matter of price: the search for novelty and innovation also drives strongly. Although consumer confidence has improved slightly in Spain, there remains caution due to global economic uncertainty, and in fact, concern about unemployment has increased in the coming months. All this makes the market a fertile ground for brands that can capture the attention of those willing to try new things.

• Accelerated digitalization: Digitalization is no longer just a trend; it is the pragmatic response to daily uncertainty. People buy, compare prices, consult reviews, and pay from their mobile devices. We are forced by the need to save time, avoid travel, and navigate price volatility. Strong brands that can adapt are the ones winning the race in the digital space. Those that fall behind simply disappear from the consumer’s radar.

• Consumption as a political act: In a world where borders are hardening and nationalist discourse is growing, shopping in the local market, choosing fair trade coffee or locally made clothing is a way of saying “I belong here” or “I don’t want to be part of the global problem.” However, high prices continue to make this consumption an "ethical luxury," accessible only to certain people, while the majority prioritize the cheap, albeit aware of its impact.

• Experiences and time: Time has become even scarcer and more valuable. People no longer want to accumulate things, but rather moments and solutions that save them minutes in their daily lives. Express delivery services, subscriptions to experiences (from online classes to monthly wine tastings), and personalized products are the new objects of desire. People seek leisure, rest, and experiences that allow them to disconnect from the noise and anxiety. 

Living (and consuming) on a tightrope

History, as always, does not progress in a straight line. Globalization promised certainties, but the reality is different: we live in a world where stability is the exception and adaptation is the rule. Uncertainty will always be a constant. 

Today, each purchasing decision is a small act of balance between fear, desire, and belonging. We are compelled to rethink what we value, to question whether we consume out of necessity, conviction, or simple inertia. The challenge is not just to choose between the global or the local, between the cheap or the ethical, but to understand what lies behind each choice.

How far are we willing to uphold our values when things get tough? To what extent are our purchasing decisions a reaction to uncertainty and fear of the future? Is consuming local an act of conviction or protection? Is economic nationalism a passing trend or the beginning of a new era of global fragmentation?